Supply & Demand Will Determine Future Home Values

20180809-Share-STM-600x328.jpg

Will home values continue to appreciate throughout 2018? The answer is simple: YES! – as long as there are more purchasers in the market than there are available homes for them to buy. This is known as the theory of “supply and demand,” which is defined as:

“The amount of a commodity, product, or service available and the desire of buyers for it, considered as factors regulating its price.”

When demand exceeds supply, prices go up. Every month this year, demand (buyer traffic) has increased as compared to last year and for the first five months of 2018, supply (the number of available listings) had decreased as compared to last year. However, a recent report by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) revealed the first year-over-year increase in supply in three years.

Here are the numbers for supply and demand as compared to last year since the beginning of 2018:

Supply & Demand Will Determine Future Home Values | MyKCM

The increase in the June numbers doesn’t mean that prices won’t continue to appreciate. In that same report, Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist, explained:

“It’s important to note that despite the modest year-over-year rise in inventory, the current level is far from what’s needed to satisfy demand levels.

Furthermore, it remains to be seen if this modest increase will stick, given the fact that the robust economy is bringing more interested buyers into the market, and new home construction is failing to keep up.”

Bottom Line

The reason home prices are still rising is that there are many purchasers looking to buy but very few homeowners ready to sell. This imbalance is the reason prices will remain on the uptick.

Real Estate Tops Best Investment Poll for 5th Year Running

iStock-886635898.jpg

Every year, Gallup surveys Americans to determine their choice for the best long-term investment. Respondents are given a choice between real estate, stocks/mutual funds, gold, savings accounts/CDs, or bonds.

For the fifth year in a row, real estate has come out on top as the best long-term investment!

This year’s results showed that 34% of Americans chose real estate, followed by stocks at 26%. The full results are shown in the chart below.

Real Estate Tops Best Investment Poll for 5th Year Running | MyKCM

The study makes it a point to draw attention to the contrast in the sentiment over the last five years compared to that of 2011-2012, when gold took the top slot with 34% of the votes. Real estate and stocks took second and third place, respectively, while still in recovery from the Great Recession.

Bottom Line

As the real estate market has recovered, so has the belief of the American people in the stability of housing as a long-term investment.

Why Home Prices Are Increasing

20180430-Share-STM-600x328.jpg

There are many unsubstantiated theories as to why home values are continuing to increase. From those who are worried that lending standards are again becoming too lenient (data shows this is untrue), to those who are concerned that prices are again approaching boom peaks because of “irrational exuberance” (this is also untrue as prices are not at peak levels when they are adjusted for inflation), there seems to be no shortage of opinion.

However, the increase in prices is easily explained by the theory of supply & demand. Whenever there is a limited supply of an item that is in high demand, prices increase.

It is that simple. In real estate, it takes a six-month supply of existing salable inventory to maintain pricing stability. In most housing markets, anything less than six months will cause home values to appreciate and anything more than seven months will cause prices to depreciate (see chart below).

Why Home Prices Are Increasing | MyKCM

According to the Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the monthly inventory of homes for sale has been below six months for the last five years (see chart below).

Why Home Prices Are Increasing | MyKCM

Bottom Line

If buyer demand continues to outpace the current supply of existing homes for sale, prices will continue to appreciate. Nothing nefarious is taking place. It is simply the theory of supply & demand working as it should.

Which Homes Have Appreciated the Most?

20170316-Share-STM-600x328.jpg

Home values have risen dramatically over the last twelve months. The latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors puts the annual increase in the median existing-home price at 7.1%. CoreLogic, in their most recent Home Price Insights Report, reveals that national home prices have increased by 6.9% year-over-year.

The CoreLogic report broke down appreciation even further into four different price categories:

  1. Lower Priced Homes: priced at 75% or less of the median
  2. Low-to-Middle Priced Homes: priced between 75-100% of the median
  3. Middle-to-Moderate Priced Homes: priced between 100-125% of the median
  4. High Price Homes: priced greater than 125% of the median

Here is how each category did in 2016:

Which Homes Have Appreciated the Most? | MyKCM

Bottom Line

The lower priced homes (which are more in demand) appreciated at greater rates than the homes at the upper ends of the spectrum.

Where Are the Home Prices Heading in the Next 5 Years?

20170227-Share-STM-600x328.jpg

Today, many real estate conversations center on housing prices and where they may be headed. That is why we like the Home Price Expectation Survey.

Every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts, and investment & market strategists about where they believe prices are headed over the next five years. They then average the projections of all 100+ experts into a single number.

The results of their latest survey:

Home values will appreciate by 4.4% over the course of 2017, 3.4% in 2018, 2.8% in 2019, 2.7% in 2020, and 2.8% in 2021. That means the average annual appreciation will be 3.22% over the next 5 years.

Where Are the Home Prices Heading in the Next 5 Years? | MyKCM

The prediction for cumulative appreciation fell from 21.4% to 17.3% by 2021. The experts making up the most bearish quartile of the survey are projecting a cumulative appreciation of 6.3%.

Where Are the Home Prices Heading in the Next 5 Years? | MyKCM

Bottom Line

Individual opinions make headlines. We believe this survey is a fairer depiction of future values. I will add though that variables do occur within specific and highly desirable areas of Orlando. Talk to me for more information.

Homeowners like property value boost from trees

Unknown.jpeg

GAINESVILLE, Fla. – Aug. 29, 2016 – If a city plants trees near a residential area, most homeowners value the likely subsequent boost to their property values, a new University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences study shows.

And they’re willing to pay an average of $7 more per month in taxes for public trees planted in their city.

In the UF/IFAS study, 1,052 surveyed Florida homeowners said they would like the trees on their land to provide shade and to be healthy, but they would prefer an increase of $1,600 in their home’s value.

Residents were separated into two surveys. One asked them to consider a hypothetical home improvement project to better the trees on their property, while the other asked a similar referendum question regarding a city program that would increase their utility tax to increase urban forests in public areas near their homes. There were 526 responses to each survey.

Given a range of paying between $1 and $10 more per month in city utility taxes, survey respondents said they want trees in their cities, but they are only willing to pay up to $7 more per month, said Jose Soto, a postdoctoral researcher in the UF/IFAS School of Forest Resources and Conservation.

“Our findings indicate that participants find it useful to invest in urban forest infrastructure and are also willing to pay for the benefits of having more trees near their homes,” Soto said.

Damian Adams, a UF/IFAS associate professor of forest resources and conservation and an Extension specialist, said the study’s findings are consistent with basic economic theory. All things considered, people want more value for their property, and more trees can add money to their home’s appraisal.

“Basically people are driven, at least in part, by economic values associated with planting trees, but they appear to be more sensitive to the property value effects of planting trees than other factors,” Adams said. “They are clearly concerned about tree shade too, which can lower energy bills and hence reduce costs. But tree shade also increases outdoor enjoyment and aesthetic benefits, which just makes people happy, and that’s worth something.”

It is important to note that while Florida homeowners are willing to pay more for public trees, some Florida programs give trees away for free and some actually plant trees near homes – for example, in Tampa, Soto said.

Tampa has a program called “Tree-mendous Tampa,” in which the city plants free trees in public rights-of-way. You can find more information on that program online. Other cities, such as Portland, Oregon, compensate residents for planting trees, Soto said.

Soto and Adams presented their findings this month at the 2016 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association Annual meeting in Boston.

Copyright © 2016 News Leader, Community Newspapers, Inc., Brad Buck. All rights reserved.