Supply & Demand Will Determine Future Home Values

Will home values continue to appreciate throughout 2018? The answer is simple: YES! – as long as there are more purchasers in the market than there are available homes for them to buy. This is known as the theory of “supply and demand,” which is defined as:

“The amount of a commodity, product, or service available and the desire of buyers for it, considered as factors regulating its price.”

When demand exceeds supply, prices go up. Every month this year, demand (buyer traffic) has increased as compared to last year and for the first five months of 2018, supply (the number of available listings) had decreased as compared to last year. However, a recent report by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) revealed the first year-over-year increase in supply in three years.

Here are the numbers for supply and demand as compared to last year since the beginning of 2018:

The increase in the June numbers doesn’t mean that prices won’t continue to appreciate. In that same report, Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist, explained:

“It’s important to note that despite the modest year-over-year rise in inventory, the current level is far from what’s needed to satisfy demand levels.

Furthermore, it remains to be seen if this modest increase will stick, given the fact that the robust economy is bringing more interested buyers into the market, and new home construction is failing to keep up.”

Bottom Line

The reason home prices are still rising is that there are many purchasers looking to buy but very few homeowners ready to sell. This imbalance is the reason prices will remain on the uptick.

Home Prices

A Year can Make a Difference when buying a home:

Watch VIDEO:

http://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/videos/view/?vid=59deec78&a=136439-35a763b467764cbe648299774fe803c6

Home Equity

On average, 61% of an American family’s net worth is their #HomeEquity!

Which Homes Have Appreciated the Most?

Home values have risen dramatically over the last twelve months. The latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors puts the annual increase in the median existing-home price at 7.1%. CoreLogic, in their most recent Home Price Insights Report, reveals that national home prices have increased by 6.9% year-over-year.

The CoreLogic report broke down appreciation even further into four different price categories:

1. Lower Priced Homes: priced at 75% or less of the median
2. Low-to-Middle Priced Homes: priced between 75-100% of the median
3. Middle-to-Moderate Priced Homes: priced between 100-125% of the median
4. High Price Homes: priced greater than 125% of the median

Here is how each category did in 2016:

Bottom Line

The lower priced homes (which are more in demand) appreciated at greater rates than the homes at the upper ends of the spectrum.

Homeowners like property value boost from trees

GAINESVILLE, Fla. – Aug. 29, 2016 – If a city plants trees near a residential area, most homeowners value the likely subsequent boost to their property values, a new University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences study shows.

And they’re willing to pay an average of $7 more per month in taxes for public trees planted in their city.

In the UF/IFAS study, 1,052 surveyed Florida homeowners said they would like the trees on their land to provide shade and to be healthy, but they would prefer an increase of $1,600 in their home’s value.

Residents were separated into two surveys. One asked them to consider a hypothetical home improvement project to better the trees on their property, while the other asked a similar referendum question regarding a city program that would increase their utility tax to increase urban forests in public areas near their homes. There were 526 responses to each survey.

Given a range of paying between $1 and $10 more per month in city utility taxes, survey respondents said they want trees in their cities, but they are only willing to pay up to $7 more per month, said Jose Soto, a postdoctoral researcher in the UF/IFAS School of Forest Resources and Conservation.

“Our findings indicate that participants find it useful to invest in urban forest infrastructure and are also willing to pay for the benefits of having more trees near their homes,” Soto said.

Damian Adams, a UF/IFAS associate professor of forest resources and conservation and an Extension specialist, said the study’s findings are consistent with basic economic theory. All things considered, people want more value for their property, and more trees can add money to their home’s appraisal.

“Basically people are driven, at least in part, by economic values associated with planting trees, but they appear to be more sensitive to the property value effects of planting trees than other factors,” Adams said. “They are clearly concerned about tree shade too, which can lower energy bills and hence reduce costs. But tree shade also increases outdoor enjoyment and aesthetic benefits, which just makes people happy, and that’s worth something.”

It is important to note that while Florida homeowners are willing to pay more for public trees, some Florida programs give trees away for free and some actually plant trees near homes – for example, in Tampa, Soto said.

Tampa has a program called “Tree-mendous Tampa,” in which the city plants free trees in public rights-of-way. You can find more information on that program online. Other cities, such as Portland, Oregon, compensate residents for planting trees, Soto said.

Soto and Adams presented their findings this month at the 2016 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association Annual meeting in Boston.

Copyright © 2016 News Leader, Community Newspapers, Inc., Brad Buck. All rights reserved.

Where Are Home Prices Headed Over the Next 5 Years?

Today, many real estate conversations center on housing prices and where they may be headed. That is why we like the Home Price Expectation Survey.

Every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts, and investment & market strategists about where they believe prices are headed over the next five years. They then average the projections of all 100+ experts into a single number.

The results of their latest survey:

Home values will appreciate by 4.5% over the course of 2016, 3.6% in 2017 and about 3.2% in the next two years, and finally 2.9% in 2020 (as shown below). That means the average annual appreciation will be 3.5% over the next 5 years.

The prediction for cumulative appreciation increased slightly from 24.7% to 26.3% by 2020. The experts making up the most bearish quartile of the survey are still projecting a cumulative appreciation of 11.1%.

Bottom Line

Individual opinions make headlines. We believe the survey is a fairer depiction of future values.

Will Appraisals Continue to be a Challenge in 2016?

First American Title issues a quarterly report, the Real Estate Sentiment Index (RESI), which “measures title agent sentiment on a variety of key market metrics and industry issues”. Their 2015 4^th Quarter Edition revealed some interesting information regarding possible challenges with appraisal values as we head into 2016.

“The fourth quarter RESI found that title agents continue to believe that property valuation issues will be the most likely cause of title order cancellation over the coming year.” 

This shouldn’t come as a surprise. In a housing market where supply is very low and demand is very high, home values increase rapidly. One major challenge in such a market is the bank appraisal. If prices are jumping, it is difficult for appraisers to find adequate, comparable sales (similar houses in the neighborhood that closed recently) to defend the price when performing the appraisal for the bank. Another monthly report by Quicken Loans measures the disparity between what a homeowner believes their house is worth as compared to an appraiser’s evaluation. Here is a chart showing that difference for each month through 2015.

Bottom Line

Every house on the market has to be sold twice; once to a prospective buyer and then to the bank (through the bank’s appraisal). With escalating prices, the second sale might be even more difficult than the first. That is why I suggest that you use an experienced real estate professional to help set your listing price. Call me.

 

Home Prices: Where Are They Headed Over The Next 5 Years?

Today, many real estate conversations center on housing prices and where they may be headed. That is why we like the Home Price Expectation Survey. Every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists about where they believe prices are headed over the next five years. They then average the projections of all 100+ experts into a single number.

The results of their latest survey:

Home values will appreciate by 3.9% by the end of 2015, 3.4% in 2016 and 3.1% in each of the following four years (as shown below). That means the average annual appreciation will be 3.2% over the next 5 years.

The prediction for cumulative appreciation rose from 18.1% to 21.6% by 2020. Even the experts making up the most bearish quartile of the survey still are projecting a cumulative appreciation of 13.8%.

Bottom Line

Individual opinions make headlines. We believe the survey is a fairer depiction of future values.

Landscape Lighting

Well-designed landscape lighting can increase your home’s value by up to 20%. It adds to curb-appeal and creates safety and security by deterring intruders and illuminating dark walkways!

Why You Should Stop Renting & Buy Today!

There are many young people debating whether they should renew the lease on their apartment or sign a contract to purchase their first home.

Housing Cost & Net Worth

Whether you rent or buy, you have a monthly housing cost.

As a buyer, you are paying YOUR mortgage.

Every mortgage payment is a form of what Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies calls “forced savings.”

“Since many people have trouble saving and have to make a housing payment one way or the other, owning a home can overcome people’s tendency to defer savings to another day.”

The principal portion of your mortgage payment helps build your net worth through building the equity you have in your home.

As a renter, you are paying YOUR LANDLORD’S mortgage.

Below is an example of the home equity that would be accrued over the course of the next four years if you were to buy a home by the end of this year; based on the results of the Home Price Expectation Survey.

In this example, simply by paying your mortgage, you have just increased your net worth by over $34,000!

Bottom Line

Use your monthly housing cost to your advantage! Meet with a local real estate professional who can explain the opportunities available in your market.